An existential catastrophe is an event that causes either human extinction or a permanent and catastrophic collapse of humanity's ability to recover and develop.

Risk scores and notable events are generated by Google's Gemini model, recalculated automatically every hour. The current setup uses Gemini 3.6 Flash, with fallback on Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite in case of service issue.

Yes.

Each risk category (nuclear, AI takeover, climate, pandemic, asteroid, supervolcano, biotechnology) gets a score out of 100 from the AI. These scores are combined into a single weighted average — the End of Time Index — which then feeds a probability model to estimate the odds of a major catastrophe over different time horizons. Check our Methodology page for more informations.

No. This is a model estimate based on an AI's assessment of current risk levels, assuming they stay constant over time. It is meant to be an interesting, transparent way to visualize existing risk research (Doomsday Clock, WEF Global Risks Report, Global Challenges Foundation), not a peer-reviewed forecast.